Why Trump Can Be Elected Repeatedly
November 14, 2024
Since the Nov 5, 2024 presidential election, in which Donald Trump was elected decisively, there has been much commentary on why he prevailed, as there was in 2016 when he similarly gained far more electoral college votes than Hillary Clinton. This time around he also received more votes nationwide – the popular vote. The following are some of the categories of reasons given in the commentaries I have seen so far:
Dissatisfaction with economic conditions.
Backlash to “wokeism”, feminism, “socialism”, etc.
Shifts in the composition of, or relative preferences of, various voting blocs.
Working class, male, white, and Christian grievances.
Missteps by his opponent during their campaign.
His opponent’s fatal flaws.
Flawed policies or messaging by Democrats in general.
Systemic biases such as the electoral college.
Inappropriate coverage by the news media.
While factors in each of these categories and others commonly cited might have played a role in at least a subset of elections, even collectively they seem inadequate to explain Trump’s dominance. With regard to his dominance, consider the following:
Trump was elected overwhelmingly in all three Republican presidential primaries in which he was a candidate, in 2016, 2020, and 2024. These races did not involve a Democratic opponent but did involve very credible and capable Republican opponents often with policies very similar to those of Trump.
Trump was elected decisively in 2016 and 2024.
Trump was almost elected in 2020 despite the nation being in the depths of a deadly and distress-inducing pandemic and its economic side effects including massive unemployment – a huge hurdle for an incumbent.
Consider also that Trump did so well despite his obvious (even to his supporters) serious character flaws, chaotic first presidency, endless and overt lying, breaking of all manner of democratic and social norms, his advanced age, his impeachments and legal entanglements, etc. On paper he is a deeply flawed candidate. This is why no one took him seriously at first.
Trump’s superpower is his extraordinary ability to persuade voters that he is their best option. What part of this ability comes from his genetics (1), from his upbringing, and from his adult life experiences, can only be guessed at, but one way or another he has come to have what appears as an instinctive ability to persuade the masses to adopt his world view. There is no evidence that it is the work of his assistants and advisors. He is a lone wolf using unscripted rhetoric that comes to him seemingly automatically (as if instinctive) and endlessly.
He uses demagoguery, lies, stories, innuendo, hyperbole, and many other rhetorical techniques to amplify grievances, instill a sense of victimhood, and trigger disgust, outrage, mistrust, and fear of “them”, while presenting himself as the only means of saving “us” from the evil-doers. Except for illegal immigrants, criminals, filthy people, academics, the transgendered, and Democratic Party operatives, he includes everyone else in the “us” category – the good guys – thus not overtly offending 90+ percent of potential voters. He has even stopped including Muslims in the “them” category.
Such tactics are commonly used to some extent by politicians of all stripes, including his opponents. What is novel are the extraordinary quantity, quality, and extremity of deployment of these techniques by Trump. He has thus been exceptionally effective at connecting with and inflaming people’s emotions and primal tendencies – those that are negative with regard to his opponent and positive with regard to him. It seems the emotions are so fully usurped as to suppress or at least override any reasoning. At this he seems better than any cult leader, any mega-church preacher, and any other politician. Short of a Democratic replica of Donald Trump, no Democratic candidate or campaign could have changed the outcome in 2016 and 2024. Trump is a uniquely superb manipulator of the human psyche (2).
There is another important factor in Trump’s success in elections. The repeal of the FCC’s Fairness Doctrine in 1987 and the subsequent erosion of most restrictions on media ownership consolidation, enabled the rise of Fox News and talk radio networks that were able to profit mightily from handing much of their far-reaching broadcast time to extreme right wing commentators. These highly popular talk shows gradually convinced a large swath of the U.S. electorate to believe in many of the “evils” that Trump was then able to build on in his rhetoric. These talk show hosts, their message increasingly repeated and amplified by algorithmic platforms and popular influencers on the Internet, laid the groundwork for Trump’s political career. It is possible that even Trump’s superpower would not have been sufficient to be elected president prior to 2016, and it seems he knew this. He explored running in all presidential elections as far back as 2000.
-oOo-
1. I recommend Robert Sapolsky’s lecture on religiosity which addresses the genetic factors at play in spiritual leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WwAQqWUkpI.
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